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<article id="post-453434" class="base-article post-453434 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail category-research-and-markets category-news tag-economy tag-economic-forecasts post_company-international-monetary-fund" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/NewsArticle">
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<h1 class="base-article__title" itemprop="headline">IMF dims outlook for 2023 global economy amid Ukraine war</h1>
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<p>“The worst is yet to come,” chief economist says</p>
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<li class="pub-details__item">By: <a href="https://www.investmentexecutive.com/writer/paul-wiseman/"><span>Paul Wiseman</span></a>, <a href="https://www.investmentexecutive.com/writer/fatima-hussein-the-associated-press/"><span>Fatima Hussein, The Associated Press</span></a></li> <li class="pub-details__item"><span class="published">October 11, 2022</span>
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<span class="updated">October 11, 2022</span></li><li class="pub-details__item">15:11</li> </ul>
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<div class="hidden" itemprop="author" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person"><span itemprop="name">Paul Wiseman</span><span itemprop="name">Fatima Hussein, The Associated Press</span></div>
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<p>The International Monetary Fund is downgrading its outlook for the world economy for 2023, including Canada’s, citing threats that include labour shortages and excess market demand.</p>
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<p>The 190-country lending agency forecast Tuesday that the global economy would eke out growth of just 2.7% next year, down from the 2.9% it had estimated in July. The IMF left unchanged its forecast for international growth this year — a modest 3.2%, a sharp deceleration from last year’s 6.0% expansion.</p> </div>
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<p>“The worst is yet to come,” said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. Three major economies — the United States, China and Europe — are stalling. Countries accounting for a third of global economic output will contract next year, suggesting that 2023 “will feel like a recession” to many people around the world, he said Tuesday.</p>
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<p>In its latest estimates, the IMF slashed its outlook for growth in the United States to 1.6% this year, down from a July forecast of 2.3%. It expects meager 1.0% U.S. growth next year.</p>
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<p>Canada is now expected to grow 3.3% this year compared with growth of 3.4% in the July forecast, while growth for 2023 is predicted to come in at 1.5%, down from an earlier forecast of 1.8%.</p>
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<p>The IMF expects continued rate hikes in 2023, echoing recent remarks from Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem who said last week that more interest rate hikes are necessary to bring inflation down.</p>
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<p>The Canadian economy is in excess demand, despite the worsening medium-term outlook, the IMF report says — also in line with the Bank of Canada’s take. Macklem noted on Oct. 6 that while global events such as the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have fed into higher prices, demand is outpacing supply more broadly in the Canadian economy.</p>
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<p>Cooling inflation remains the central bank’s priority, Macklem said.</p>
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<p>“Our mandate is clear. Our primary responsibility is price stability,” he said.</p>
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<p>Since March, the central bank has raised its key interest rate to 3.25% from 0.25%, one of the fastest rate hike cycles in its history. The bank is set to release its latest economic forecast along with a rate announcement on 26.</p>
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<p>The fund foresees China’s economy growing just 3.2% this year, down drastically from 8.1% last year. Beijing has instituted draconian zero-Covid policy and has cracked down on excessive real estate lending, disrupting business activity. China’s growth is forecast to accelerate to 4.4% next year, still tepid by Chinese standards.</p>
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<p>In the IMF’s view, the collective economy of the 19 European countries that share the euro currency, reeling from crushingly high energy prices caused by Russia’s attack on Ukraine and Western sanctions against Moscow, will grow just 0.5% in 2023.</p>
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<p>The world economy has endured a wild ride since Covid-19 hit in early 2020. First, the pandemic and the lockdowns it generated brought the world economy to a standstill in the spring of 2020. Then, vast infusions of government spending and ultra-low borrowing rates engineered by the Federal Reserve and other central banks fueled an unexpectedly strong and speedy recovery from the pandemic recession.</p>
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<p>But the stimulus came at a high cost. Factories, ports and freight yards were overwhelmed by powerful consumer demand for manufactured goods, especially in the United States, resulting in delays, shortages and higher prices. (The IMF expects worldwide consumer prices to rise 8.8% this year, up from 4.7% in 2021.)</p>
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<p>In response, the Fed and other central banks have reversed course and begun raising rates dramatically, risking a sharp slowdown and potentially a recession. The Fed has raised its benchmark short-term rate five times this year. Higher rates in the United States have lured investment away from other countries and strengthened the value of the dollar against other currencies.</p>
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<p>Outside the United States, the higher dollar makes imports that are sold in the American currency, including oil, more expensive and therefore heightens global inflationary pressures. It also forces foreign countries to raise their own rates — and burden their economies with higher borrowing costs — to defend their currencies.</p>
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<p>Maurice Obstfeld, a former IMF chief economist who now teaches at the University of California, Berkeley, has warned that an overly aggressive Fed could “drive the world economy into an unnecessarily harsh contraction.”</p>
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<h2 class="bloc-title bloc-title--border-color bloc-title__text--color bloc-title--big">
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Latest news In Research and Markets </h2>
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<a class="text-content__link " href="https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/research-and-markets/wall-street-banks-set-to-reveal-q3-weakness/">Wall Street banks set to reveal Q3 weakness</a>
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<p class="text-content__excerpt">
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Banks' investment banking fees likely dropped, trading held up: Moody's </p>
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<li class="pub-details__item">By: <a href="https://www.investmentexecutive.com/writer/james-langton/"><span>James Langton</span></a></li> <li class="pub-details__item"><span class="published">October 13, 2022</span>
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<span class="updated">October 13, 2022</span></li><li class="pub-details__item">14:40</li> </ul>
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<div id="post-453468" class="text-content text-content--border-bottom post-453468 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail category-research-and-markets category-news tag-cryptoassets tag-bitcoin post_company-bank-of-canada">
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<a class="text-content__link " href="https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/research-and-markets/canadian-investors-turned-to-bitcoin-during-pandemic/">Canadian investors turned to Bitcoin during pandemic</a>
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</h3>
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Bank of Canada paper finds ownership more than doubled in 2021 </p>
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<ul class="pub-details">
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<li class="pub-details__item">By: <a href="https://www.investmentexecutive.com/writer/james-langton/"><span>James Langton</span></a></li> <li class="pub-details__item"><span class="published">October 12, 2022</span>
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<span class="updated">October 12, 2022</span></li><li class="pub-details__item">15:10</li> </ul>
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Traditional firms and upstarts to benefit from U.S. recommendations </p>
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<li class="pub-details__item">By: <a href="https://www.investmentexecutive.com/writer/james-langton/"><span>James Langton</span></a></li> <li class="pub-details__item"><span class="published">October 11, 2022</span>
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<span class="updated">October 11, 2022</span></li><li class="pub-details__item">16:45</li> </ul>
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</div>
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</h3>
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Equity market activity and corporate debt issuance tumble in first nine months of 2022 </p>
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<ul class="pub-details">
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<li class="pub-details__item">By: <a href="https://www.investmentexecutive.com/writer/james-langton/"><span>James Langton</span></a></li> <li class="pub-details__item"><span class="published">October 11, 2022</span>
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<span class="updated">October 11, 2022</span></li><li class="pub-details__item">14:51</li> </ul>
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</div>
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<h2 class="bloc-title bloc-title--border-color bloc-title__text--color bloc-title--big">Today's top stories</h2>
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<a class="text-content__link " href="https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/people/industry-moves-this-week-16/">Industry moves this week</a>
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</h3>
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FSRA's advisory committee for planners, advisors nearly fully staffed; new CFO at CPPIB </p>
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<li class="pub-details__item">By: <a href="https://www.investmentexecutive.com/writer/katie-keir/"><span>Katie Keir</span></a></li> <li class="pub-details__item"><span class="published">October 14, 2022</span>
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<span class="updated">October 14, 2022</span></li><li class="pub-details__item">12:55</li> </ul>
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Dividend, low-volatility and covered-call ETFs can all support portfolios in bad markets </p>
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<li class="pub-details__item">By: <a href="https://www.investmentexecutive.com/writer/rudy-luukko/"><span>Rudy Luukko</span></a></li> <li class="pub-details__item"><span class="published">October 11, 2022</span>
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<div id="post-453639" class="text-content text-content--border-bottom post-453639 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail category-from-the-regulators category-news tag-enforcement tag-exempt-market tag-portfolio-managers tag-investment-funds post_company-ontario-securities-commission">
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<a class="text-content__link " href="https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/from-the-regulators/osc-regulatory-actions-continue-downward-trend/">OSC regulatory actions continue downward trend</a>
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</h3>
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<p class="text-content__excerpt">
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In the coming year, the regulator will assess how firms are implementing the CFRs </p>
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<ul class="pub-details">
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<li class="pub-details__item">By: <a href="https://www.investmentexecutive.com/writer/melissa-shin/"><span>Melissa Shin</span></a></li> <li class="pub-details__item"><span class="published">October 14, 2022</span>
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<span class="updated">October 14, 2022</span></li><li class="pub-details__item">14:19</li> </ul>
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</div>
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<div id="post-453641" class="text-content text-content--border-bottom post-453641 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail category-industry-news category-news tag-real-estate tag-economic-indicators post_company-bmo-capital-markets">
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<h3 class="text-content__title text-content__title--dinlB text-content__title--big icons">
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<a class="text-content__link " href="https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/industry-news/crea-reports-home-sales-in-typically-busy-september-continued-to-slow/">CREA reports home sales in typically busy September continued to slow</a>
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</h3>
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<p class="text-content__excerpt">
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Sellers can hold out for better market conditions: BMO </p>
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<ul class="pub-details">
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<li class="pub-details__item">By: <a href="https://www.investmentexecutive.com/writer/tara-deschamps/"><span>Tara Deschamps</span></a></li> <li class="pub-details__item"><span class="published">October 14, 2022</span>
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<span class="updated">October 14, 2022</span></li><li class="pub-details__item">13:05</li> </ul>
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</div>
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