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### Insiders: Trump will sink Pence in VP debate

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“Pence will have to defend Trump and his year-plus of inflammatory comments,” a New Hampshire Republican told POLITICO. | Illustration by POLITICO / AP Photo

The POLITICO Caucus

# Insiders: Trump will sink Pence in VP debate

'Is it just me or are the two VP candidates infinitely more appealing than their running mates?' said a Pennsylvania Republican.

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Tim Kaine isn’t Mike Pence’s only opponent Tuesday night in the only debate between the vice-presidential hopefuls — Pence also has to cope with the big shadow cast by his party’s standard-bearer, Donald Trump.

That’s one reason Democratic members of The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of swing-state activists, strategists and operatives — are more optimistic about Kaine’s chances of delivering a winning performance than Republicans are about Pence’s.

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Virtually all Democratic insiders surveyed last week, 97 percent, expect Kaine to get the better of Pence at Longwood University. In comparison, fewer than three-quarters of Republicans, 74 percent, think Pence will win.

“Pence will have to defend Trump and his year-plus of inflammatory comments,” said a New Hampshire Republican, who, like all insiders, completed the survey anonymously. “Kaine won't.”

“Kaine in a blowout,” an Iowa Republican predicted. “He has a personality. Pence does not. His attempts to explain Trump are among the most tortured I've ever seen. … Pence goes about it with all the passion of a dead fish skittering along the concrete at [Seattle’s Pike Place] Market.”

Other Republicans who thought Kaine would outperform Pence were critical of the Indiana governor’s style.

“Kaine may have better appeal, if only because Pence is too ‘Cracker Barrel’ for moderate, upper-middle-class suburban constituencies,” a Michigan Republican said.

“Tim Kaine is the relatable neighbor next door,” an Iowa Republican added. “Mike Pence is the guy you feel the need to impress in church.”

But the majority of Republicans have faith in Pence, who is in his first term as Indiana governor after serving six terms in the House.

“He's a really good communicator and engaging personality,” a Pennsylvania Republican said. “Tim Kaine isn't either.”

That doesn’t mean those Republicans covet Pence’s position: defending Trump, who plucked Pence out of Indianapolis less than three months ago.

“The only reasonable person in the race is Pence,” a Virginia Republican said. “However, he will have the unenviable task of defending Trump.”

So far, insiders said, Pence has done an admirable job as Trump’s running mate. Asked whether the Trump campaign has deployed Pence in the most effective way possible, a 52-percent majority of GOP insiders said it has, and another 27 percent said Pence had been somewhat effective.

“Mike Pence has exceeded expectations,” an Ohio Republican said. “He has valiantly tried to clean up every mess.”

And if Trump falls short this year, a number of GOP insiders in key early states said Pence has impressed them.

“Pence is really effective,” said a GOP insider in the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire. “I didn't want Trump to pick him, but I've totally changed my mind and hope he runs for president next time around!”

“He is brilliant,” an Iowa Republican said, adding that Pence “should be [the] presidential candidate. He will be someday.”

As for Kaine, most Democrats were satisfied with the ways in which he’s been deployed by Hillary Clinton's camp: 47 percent said Kaine has been deployed in the most effective way, and another 43 percent said the Virginian has been somewhat effectively deployed.

“Seems like they have been very strategic in having him smaller media markets in battleground states, plus help on fundraising,” a Colorado Democrat observed.

“He gets down with the people,” added a Florida Democrat. “He relates. He's down home, old shoe. His harmonica and his wife's clogging is just what the campaign needs in coal mining and similar areas.”

Expectations for Kaine are particularly high in his home state on Tuesday night.

“Having known Tim for almost 20 years, he is just whip-smart, great on his feet, very sincere,” said a Virginia Democrat. “Everything you could want.”

“I have known Tim Kaine for many years and observed him in prior debates,” added another commonwealth Democrat, “and he is motivating and influential.”

A couple of Virginia Republicans offered their compliments, too. One called Kaine a “trial lawyer who is great on his feet,” and another said the first-term senator is “a good talker if you do not challenge him.”

Overall, many insiders fell into two camps: those who relished a debate between two civil, substantive combatants — and those who think a debate between these two running mates will be a snooze-fest.

A Colorado Democrat said the debate is likely to be as exciting "as watching paint dry." One Nevada Democrat asked simply, "Who cares?" An Iowa Republican seemingly answered that rhetorical question: "Nobody cares."

But others said they were more interested.

"Honestly, this should be one of the better duels at the vice-presidential level," an Iowa Republican said. "To the extent the debate is about them, it should be a great match. Even if it devolves into a defense of their running mates, it should be a great show."

Asked a Pennsylvania Republican: "Is it just me or are the two VP candidates infinitely more appealing than their running mates?"

These are the members of The POLITICO Caucus, not all of whom participated in this special survey:

Colorado: Ryan Call, Laura Carno, Matt Chandler, Will Coyne, Adam Eichberg, Mark Ferrandino, Cole Finegan, Michael Fortney, Andrew Freedman, Ted Harvey, Craig Hughes, Owen Loftus, Pete Maysmith, Frank McNulty, Karen Middleton, Christopher Murray, BJ Nikkel, Josh Penry, Rick Ridder, Alan Salazar, Janice Sinden, Pat Steadman, Pat Waak, Steve Welchert, Taylor West, Roxane White, Rob Witwer

Florida: Fernand Amandi, Scott Arceneaux, JP Austin, Tim Baker, Dennis K. Baxley, Slater Bayliss, Dave Beattie, Wayne Bertsch, Ron Book, Pamela Burch Fort, Jose Calderon, Kevin Cate, Kelly Cohen, Gus Corbella, Brian Crowley, Elizabeth Cuevas-Neunder, Justin Day, Judith Diaz, Nelson Diaz, John Dowless, Ryan Duffy, Jessica Ehrlich, Joe Falk, Alia Faraj-Johnson, Mark Ferrulo, Damien Filer, Marty Fiorentino, Rich Heffley, Nick Iarossi, David Johnson, Eric Johnson, Marian Johnson, Eric Jotkoff, Chris Korge, Jackie Lee, Susan MacManus, Beth Matuga, Fred Menachem, Jon Mills, Joe Mobley, Ben Pollara, Andrea Reilly, Steve Schale, April Schiff, Max Steele, Roger Stone, Richard Swann, Kevin Sweeny, Christian Ulvert, Steve Vancore, Ashley Walker, Andrew Weinstein, Andrew Wiggins, Ryan Wiggins, Rick Wilson

Iowa: Tim Albrecht, Brad Anderson, Rob Barron, Jeff Boeyink, Bonnie Campbell, Dave Caris, Sam Clovis, Jerry Crawford, Sara Craig, John Davis, Steve Deace, John Deeth, Derek Eadon, Ed Failor Jr., Karen Fesler, David Fischer, Ben Foecke, Doug Gross, Steve Grubbs, Tim Hagle, Bob Haus, Joe Henry, Drew Ivers, Jill June, Lori Jungling, Jeff Kaufmann, Brian Kennedy, Jake Ketzner, David Kochel, Chris Larimer, Chuck Larson, Jill Latham, Jeff Link, Dave Loebsack, Mark Lucas, Liz Mathis, Jan Michelson, Chad Olsen, David Oman, Matt Paul, Marlys Popma, Troy Price, Christopher Rants, Kim Reem, Craig Robinson, Sam Roecker, David Roederer, Nick Ryan, Tamara Scott, Joni Scotter, Karen Slifka, John Smith, AJ Spiker, Norm Sterzenbach, John Stineman, Matt Strawn, Charlie Szold, Phil Valenziano, Jessica Vanden Berg, Nate Willems, Eric Woolson, Grant Young

Michigan: Jill Alper, Saul Anuzis, Andrea Bitely, Lori Carpentier, Howard Edelson, Jordan Gehrke, Steve Hood, Darwin Jiles Jr., Joe Lehman, Dennis Lennox, Katie Packer, Ronna Romney McDaniel, John Truscott, Stephanie White, John Yob

Nevada: Mac Abrams, Greg Bailor, Barbara Buckley, Yvanna Cancela, Bob Cavazos, Linda Cavazos, Jim DeGraffenreid, Andrew Diss, Peter Ernaut, Ryan Erwin, Chip Evans, Jay Gerstema, Oscar Goodman, Ryan Hamilton, Dan Hart, Pat Hickey, Zach Hudson, Jeremy Hughes, Megan Jones, Lindsey Jydstrup, Adam Khan, Peter Koltak, Roberta Lange, Sam Liberman, Laura Martin, Michael McDonald, Chuck Muth, Erven Nelson, Kristen Orthman, Neal Patel, Nick Phillips, Jon Ralston, Andres Ramires, Emmy Ruiz, Scott Scheid, Mike Slanker, James Smack, Paul Smith, Jack St. Martin, Mari St. Martin, Daniel Stewart, Brendan Summers, Riley Sutton, Robert Uithoven, Michelle White, Ed Williams, Heidi Wixom

New Hampshire: Charlie Arlinghaus, Arnie Arnesen, Patrick Arnold, Rich Ashooh, Dean Barker, Juliana Bergeron, D.J. Bettencourt, Michael Biundo, Ray Buckley, Peter Burling, Jamie Burnett, Debby Butler, Dave Carney, Jackie Cilley, Catherine Corkery, Corriveau, Fergus Cullen, Lou D’Allesandro, James Demers, Mike Dennehy, Sean Downey, Steve Duprey, JoAnn Fenton, Jennifer Frizzell, Martha Fuller Clark, Amanda Grady Sexton, Jack Heath, Gary Hirshberg, Jennifer Horn, Peter Kavanaugh, Joe Keefe, Rich Killion, Harrell Kirstein, Sylvia Larsen, Joel Maiola, Kate Malloy Corriveau, Maureen Manning, Steve Marchand, Tory Mazzola, Jim Merrill, Jayne Millerick, Claira Monier, Greg Moore, Matt Mowers, Terie Norelli, Chris Pappas, Liz Purdy, Tom Rath, Colin Reed, Jim Rubens, Andy Sanborn, Dante Scala, William Shaheen, Stefany Shaheen, Carol Shea-Porter, Terry Shumaker, Andy Smith, Craig Stevens, Kathy Sullivan, Chris Sununu, James Sununu, Jay Surdukowski, Donna Sytek, Kari Thurman, Colin Van Ostern, Deb Vanderbeek, Mike Vlacich, Ryan Williams

North Carolina: Don Davis, Francis X. De Luca, Anita Earls, Jonathan Felts, Tami L. Fitzgerald, Dylan Frick, Taylor Griffin, Robin Hayes, Morgan Jackson, Patsy Keever, Theresa Kostrzewa, Michael Luethy, Ray Martin, Thomas Mills, Melissa L. Reed, Chris Sgro, Paul Shumaker, Dee Stewart, Brad Thompson, Bruce Thompson, Charlie Wallin, Doug Wilson

Ohio: Jerry Austin, Greg Beswick, Matt Borges, Erica Bruton, Tim Burke, Janet Carson, Jai Chabria, Martha Clark, Bob Clegg, Damareo Cooper, Jo Ann Davidson, Michael Dawson, Bill DeMora, Cindy Demse, Kathy Dicristofaro, Katie Eagan, Michael Gonidakis, Wes Goodman, Joe Hallett, Ian James, Melissa Klide Hedden, David Leland, Nick Martin, Rhine McLin, David Pepper, Molly Shack, Mark R. Weaver

Pennsylvania: Chris Borick, Larry Ceisler, Valentino DiGiorgio, Jason Ercole, Dan Fee, Charlie Gerow, Marcel Groen, Leslie Gromis Baker, Mark Harris, Nan McLaughlin, Aubrey Montgomery, Christopher Nicholas, Nachama Soloveichik, David Sosar, Todd Stephens, Doc Sweitzer, David Thornburgh, Ray Zaborney

Virginia: Ray Allen, Sandra Brandt, Marc K. Broklawski, Patsy Brown, Janet Carver, John Cosgrove, Brian Coy, Doris Crouse-Mays, Tom Davis, Julie Dime, Abbi Easter, Mike Farris, John Findlay, Joe Fitzgerald, Sean Harrison, Margo Horner, Robert Hurt, Gaylene Kanoyton, Chris LaCivita, Sue Langley, Frank Leone, Robert G. Marshall, Tucker Martin, Ed Matricardi, Susan J. Rowland, Peter Snyder, Susan Swecker, Jo Thoburn

Wisconsin: Meg Andrietsch, Mary Arnold, Kevin Barthel, Mike Basford, Rebecca Bonesteel, Barry Burden, Terri Burl, Jim Camery, Patrick Guarasci, Robert Hansen, Gary Hawley, Marian Krumberger, Emily Nehring, Jason Rae, Brandon Scholz, John Zapfel

Kristen Hayford contributed to this report.

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###### This story tagged under:

- Hillary Clinton
- Tim Kaine
- Elections
- Mike Pence
- Donald Trump
- Debates
- 2016 Elections
- Hillary Clinton 2016
- The POLITICO Caucus
- Donald Trump 2016
- 2016 Presidential Debates
- 2016 Vice Presidential Debate

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